Short Term View on some majors - forex trading based on news

Short Term View on some majors ~ forex trading based on news

The following currency on H4 are almost ripe for long. I used the word almost, because the signals is not there yet. The best way to use H4 is actually see the signal in the form of the next one or two reversal candles on H4. What is required is to monitor the pair and wait for the signals. It is not advisable to pre-empt the move, wait for the sigal on H4. After a sigficant fall by most of the pairs, they are due for a reverse. The advantage of H4 is that you will get adequate notice of between 8-16 hours. We attach the relevant charts for guidance
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Medium Term View on some of the majors - online forex trading news

Medium Term View on some of the majors ~ online forex trading news

USDCAD Daily chart is currently close to a resistance that has failed to give way since June 2010. It is being tested for the third time this month. If the resistance hold then the current bullish trend could be reversed. If the resistance is eventually broken, the next resistance is at 1.08584 area. The best option for medium term trade is to monitor the pair and wait for the sigal

AUDUSAD Dily chart is currently in the middle of channel. It can go either way. The current position is not ideal for any medium term trade.


GBPUSD is on its way down, but it has not reached its destination. The current position is not ideal for medium term trade. For medium term trade, the best option to wait for the time when the current trend will reverse.

GBPJPY is getting close the end of the channel. Being a volatile pair, it is not advisable to go long yet. The last signal was given on 28 of this month and it retraced by almost 500 pips and back to the spot in 5 days. That is about 1000 pips both ways. The signal to sell was given around 137 area. If you miss either of the two the best option is to wait.
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500 Pips Trade set up - forex trading latest news

500 Pips Trade set up ~ forex trading latest news

Welcome to a new trading year - 2011. What I will be discussing this year is taking our trade to higher levels. Looking for those highly profitable set up for the major pairs. This first posting will be on the GBPUSD. The principle are simple as follows:

1. We rely of the weekly chart for the overall direction
2. The daily chart determines whether to buy or sell
3. H4 or M15 for excellent entry.

Based on the above analysis, here is the set up for a potential 500+ pips trade based on Head & Shoulder on the weekly .

a) The weekly trend is up
b) The daily RSI is getting close to 70 RSI and currently withing a possible left shoulder of Head & Shoulder on the weekly chart.
c) It took about 21 days from when the signal was given on the daily and roughly 750 pips so far.
d) The yellow area is where we are watching now. A daily open and close above 1.61140 area will invalidate our head & shoulder set-up. If this happens a second kiss of 1.63000 is possible to give us double top.

Until this happens our H&S is still valid. Furthermore the daily RSI is currently kissing 70 point mark. This means the cable is getting ripe for short. However, we need to see where the daily candle closes today.

If you are ready for a 500-pips or more trade, you can begin to short between 1.610000 - 1.630000 or the first reversal candle (bear candle on the daily). Everything is in the chart!

Enjoy your trading!
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Trading Strategy Explained - forex trading on news

Trading Strategy Explained ~ forex trading on news

Let me use this opportunity to explain and make some clarifications in respect of following aspects of my trading strategy.

a) Candle trades
b) Monthly chart
c) Weekly chart
d) Daily Chart
e) 4-Hour chart



Candle trades:

For the candle trades I use weekly and monthly candles and I have a micro account with Alpari which I use for these trades, because I am still experimenting. However, whenever a unique opportunity present and it aligns with my trade set in the charts, I replicate such trades on my main account. For the candle trades, I dont use RSI. I simply follow the candle, if the candle is bearish, I will go short and if the candle is bullish, I will go long. If you want to try this, open a separate micro account or even try it on a demo account over a period of time to properly understand it.





Long Term trades:



For long term trade, I follow the daily, weekly and monthly charts using RSI as a guide. The signals on these period are usually few, but of the best quality.



Monthly RSI gave a buy signal in March 2009 and over the next 4 months, price rose by about 3000 pips. The next signal was given in June 2010 and yield about 1800 pip. Using the monthly RSI, there is no signal to sell yet.



Weekly RSI gave six signals on the chart 3 buy and 3 sell as shown on the chart.



Daily RSI gave three signals so far, 1 buy and 2 sell as shown on the chart.



I attach herewith a daily, weekly and monthly charts for GBPUSD to illustrate the points. The place where the signals are given highlighted in blue boxes.



How do you interprete all these based on where we are today for your long term trade?



Monthly: The buy signal was given in June, if you miss it wait for another signal. Most importantly, dont trade in the middle of channel. You can get your trades on other timeframe.



Weekly: The weekly gave a buy in May and sell signal in August indicated by the spots highlighted. Price is currently on 50 points. Wait for another signal if you want to trade weekly long term.



Daily: The daily gave the sell signal in between August 2-4 and has currently cross the 50 point mark down. The next signal you should watch out for is buy. If you miss the signal in August, wait for the next one.



For a trader who missed all these signal for medium term, trade, what does he do?



If you miss all this signals, the next option is to trade intra-day using H4. The horizontal line on the RSI is your guide.



For a trader who misses all of these signals, what does he do?



The best option is to stay out on the sideline and wait for the next signal, because that is the only way to be a successful trader.



I took time to clearly enumerate the steps to show that is important for a trader to be methodical in his approach. If a set-up is not right, ignore such trades. To give you more trading opportunities, you can monitor between 2-4 majors and only trade the one that presents the best opportunity at any point in time.



Happy trading!
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GBPUSD Daily 170 Pip Flag - forex trading on news releases

GBPUSD Daily 170 Pip Flag ~ forex trading on news releases

The cable has now formed another 170 pips flat on the daily. It has been trading within the range for the past 5 days. A break out of the curren box will determine the next direction. The advantage of this is to The three charts below give idea on the trading opportunities within this range. 1.54198 and 1.53274 are the major areas to watch out for a break upside and downside respectively. If you want to trade this wait for the next H4 candle.
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Waiting Period - forex news trader pdf

Waiting Period ~ forex news trader pdf

The Cable is still in indecision mode. There has to be a clear break out of the H4 timeframe box to determine if the reversal is genuine or if it is a temporary halt to the downtrend. We are in a waiting period.
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Short Medium and Long Term Trading Plan - forex market news rss

Short Medium and Long Term Trading Plan ~ forex market news rss

I have already mentioned earlier on this trend the the need to have short, medium and long term trainding plan in place for any trader to be successful. Let me briefly explain my long term trading methods plans here:

Long Term

For my long term trading I use the following combinations:

a) Daily candle in conjunction with RSI. I will monitor the RSI for a clear direction. Once the direction is established I follow the direction. I allow that trade to float around for either 500 pips TP or until the price start to craw around the red horizontal line I have on my RSI chart before closing the trade.

b) Weekly Candle only. For the weekly candle, I open a trade at every month based on the direction of the weekly candly. I will set TP at 250 pips, where the TP is not reach, I wait till Friday to close the trade.

c) Monthly Candle only. For the monthly candle, I will wait 3 three days into a new month and place a trade based on the direction of the candle. I will set the TP at 500 pips, where the TP is not reach, I wait a day before the last trading date of the month to close the trade manually.


For the long term trades, I place only 5 trades in a month in addition to any floationg trade from my daily RSI Chart signal. When I started this method, it was very difficult to avoid the temptation to close trades already in profits or allow losing trades to float for weeks before turning around to profit. I must confess at the initial stage, I close most of these trades whenever I see 100 pips gain/loss in my live account, but with time I develop the discipline to stick to my plans.

The long term trades are usually in addition to my short and medium term trades based on signals from H4 RSI signal, major support and resistance, trend lines and price channels I mentioned in my earlier posts. For the short and medium term trades, I ensure that they are closed a daily basis at most within two days. Depending on my daily targets some of them are even closed within hours or on good days within minutes. I attach a daily chart which shows the trading opportunities for long time between January 2009 - June 2010 and the respect for the RSI 50 line which usually serve as guide as to whether to exit a trade or allow it run.

I will provide the summary of my method in my next post, post some of my results and thereafter come to the present and share my daily, weekly and long term trading plans on this tread for exchange of ideas.
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Follow The First Reversal H4 Candle Using M15 - forex pre news trading

Follow The First Reversal H4 Candle Using M15 ~ forex pre news trading

This current sentiment now is that GBPUSD has formed a 200-pips box (flag) between 1.57807 and 1.55081. A break out of either side will determine the next direction. Until this happens any prediction is mere speculation.

To play the range, follow H4. The most effective method is to follow the first reversal H4 candle using M15 as entry around 30. The red horizontal line on RSI gives early indication of when to take profit or lock your profit. Now the trend is up, reversal on M15 around 70 is a signal to either take or lock your profit by either using trailing stop or shifting your stop loss.
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GBPUSD 200 Pips Box - monexnews forex trading news

GBPUSD 200 Pips Box ~ monexnews forex trading news

I have earlier explained the benefit of daily box system. The strategy is simple, draw the box on the daily chart and go down to H4 for trend and M15 for entry. Using this system, you will be able to see price movement clearly.

I have earlier explained the benefit of daily box system. The strategy is simple, draw the box on the daily chart and go down to H4 for trend and M15 for entry. Using this system, you will be able to see price movement clearly.

We now have another 200 pips box. The RSI is a guide as to the upper and lower range of the price action within the box. Carefully observe how price behave no mather the time frame around 50 mark on RSI.





Cable has broken out of the 200 pips box and appears to be heading toward the next box. Price movement is simply a matter of habits. History keeps repeating itself over and over again.



Look at the candle between between 1.57147 and 1.58534 both on the way up and down. I single H4 candle. Also look at the candle on the way down from 1.60000 which closed on 1.56396 and the current candle which took which close outside the box.



If we break the resistance at 1.58535 our next destination is most likely the next zone between 1.58535 - 1.60000. If the resistance hold however, we have landing where the candle took of from i.e. 1.57000 - 1-55000




Happy trading!
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