My current views of some major pairs ~ forex news trader libro
I have not been able to post for sometimes now because of my other commitments. But if you read my previous postings carefully you must have observed that most of my longterm views are usually valid for some few months.
GBPUSD
For GBPUSD I identified double tops around 1.60000 on three time frames and the price fell by about 350 pips. I also mentioned that if the daily closed above 1.60000 the next range is between 1.60000 and 1.64000
GBPUSD has since then established a 300- pips concrete area between 1.60000 and 1.63000. That is the range for now. 1.63000 is the gateway to the north 1.70000 area. It is very strong psychological area for both north and southward movements. This is an area to watch. If price successful break it then 1.60000 – 1.70000 is the next target. If price fails to break it however, then we are going back to 1.60000 and below. Price is currently in the middle of the channel.
For short term trades, we are in the middle of a channel. If you miss the trade when the price fell to around 1.59600, the best option is to wait for another signal on H4. A daily open or close above the current range (1.60000 – 163000) will signify the next direction.
For long term trades, 1.63000 and 1.60000 are the areas to watch out for to either go long or short.
AUDUSDI mentioned in my previous postings that parity 1.00000 area was a good place to start shorting AUDUSD. When the price got to to that impotant psychological level, it acted as a resistance and price fell by about 350 pips to 0.9650 area before continuing its upward movement helped by the price of gold and relative weakness of the dollar.
AUDUSD is currently trading within about 200 pips range with the support slightly above 1.0000 area and the resistance around 1.02000. The daily is at the borderline now as it is threatening to go back to 1.00000 – 1.09500 area.
For short term trades, the signals are not clear now, as we need to break out of 1.00240 and 1.00750 range to establish a clear direction. As usual our guide is the daily, we need the daily candle to open and close within any of the above range to signal the direction. Once the direction is established, H4 will provide the signal and M15 for entry as usual.
For long term trades, the trend is still up, but weekly and daily RSI are clearly indicating that we are at the very top. My advise for both longterm and shortterm traders is to short new highs on H4 chart. This is a waiting period as we are in the middle of H4 channel. The best option for a wise trade is to wait for clear signal.
USDJPY
I mentioned in my last posting that 82.00 is the crucial point at the moment. The support failed and the price fell to 80.00. 80.00 zone appears to be the bottom now. The currency is making a steady climb to the top and oscillating between 80.00 and 82.78.
For short term trades our concrete zone for now is 80.00 – 83.00 price level, a
daily open and close outside this box is an indication that the zone is no longer valid. The current sentiment is that USDJPY is closer to the bottom. Therefore the less risky trade is to look for opportunity to go long whenever H4 gives the signal using M15 for entry.
For long term trades, the most profitable trade is to go long at points closer to the bottom 80.00. A daily and weekly close above 83.00 signifies continuation of the bullish run with 86.00 area being the next major resistance area.
EURUSD
1.36800 and 1.42800 is the concrete zone for EURUSD for now. A daily open and close outside the box signifies a violation of this zone. The weekly is still in an indecision mood.
For short term trades, the best signal for how is long and H4 and M15 gave the signal for long around 1.36000 area. The best option for short term trades is long with close watch on your trades because of indecision on the high time frame and that fact that price is close to a major support.
As a mentioned earlier for long-term trades, a close outside the indecision area, will technically tell us where to go.
GBPJPY
I mentioned earlier that GBPJPY was threatening 127.00 area. Price actually touched 126.00 for 900 pips fall from the highest level of 135.00 when BOJ intervened. At 126.00 price complete the 2nd leg of the earlier fall from 145.00
GBPJPY has now moved by 600 pips from 126.00 to 133.00. The current trend is up and dragon is known for between 900-1000 pips movement and in order to complete its current move price might reach 136-136 area in the first leg and up to 145 to create a double top at 145. It is usually difficult to establish concrete zone for the dragon because of its unusual movement but the critical support and resistance area for the pair are as follows:
126 is the floor for now
130 is the first major resistance
135 -136 is the next major resistance
139-140 is an historical concrete area on the way up and down
145 is a next major resistance
149 -150 is the next major resistance
If you are trading GBPJPY you should expect every major move to be around 1000 pips broken into about 500 pips each. The areas highlighted above are where to look out for. Trading dragon is very risky and you need to be aware of this fact to be successful.
For short term trades H4 is still valid for signal and M15 for entry. Currently, the signal for long was given around 130 area and short around 133.00 area.
USDCAD
USDCAD is current creating a round bottom 0.99730. A touch of 0.99600 is possible to create a double bottom on the daily chart. Once the bottom is fully established 1.03240 is the first resistance on the way to 1.06000 area and above. If the bottom fails, then a fall to 0.93000 is possible to form double bottom on the weekly chart.
The current concrete zones for now is 0.99700 – 1.03240 with a minor resistance at 1.01440. These are the areas to watch out for.
For short term trades H4 is still valid for signal and M15 for entry. Currently, the signal for long was given around 0.99700 area and short most likely between 0.01440 – 0.02000 areas.
These are my views on the majors for now. I attach herewith relevant charts in support of these above analysis.
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