Outlook on some Majors - forex market news international

Outlook on some Majors ~ forex market news international

USDCAD
The downward pressure is still on USDCAD and the pair is still respecting the downward trendline on the weekly chart. Every attempt to rise met resistance at the 50 point mark. History has shown no currency pair remain low for ever.

Recommendation:

Wait for price to fall back to the 30 point mark on the daily chart and watch out for the 50 point mark to take profit or lock your profit.

GBPJPY

GBPJPY is stll continuing its upward movement from 125.45 As I mentioned earlier the pair usually move at least a 1000 pips divided in 500 pips to complete a circle. The current move is expected to reach around 134-135 area. Price is currently bouncing between 70 and 50 point mark.

Recommendation:

Wait for price to rise back to 70 point mark, sell and watch out for the 50 point mark on Daily RSI to take or lock your profit. Personally I would prefer to short around 134-135. I actually have a pendind order at 135.00 for almost three weeks.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD broke out of the concrete zone this week to touch 1.62796 to complete almost a 1000 pips move. The pressure is to the downside. Price is currently bouncing between 70 and 50 point mark.

Recommendation:

SELL. Wait for price to rise back to 70 point mark on the daily chart, sell and watch out for the 50 point mark on Daily RSI to take or lock your profit. Remember whenever a daily candle opens and clososes outside the concrete zone the direction is confirmed.


AUDUSD

AUDUSD us currently trading between 1.02411 and 0.95092 (our current concrete zone). The middle of the zone is established at 0.98038. Price is currently bouncing between 70 and 50 point mark.

Recommendation:

SELL. Wait for price to rise back to 70 point mark, sell and watch out for the 50 point mark on Daily RSI to take or lock your profit.

The relevant daily and weekly charts for these pairs are attached. Enjoy your trading!








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USDCHF Analysis - forex market moving news

USDCHF Analysis ~ forex market moving news

USDCHF is currently close to its historical low level of 0.96360 recorded in March 2008. The monthly and weekly candles however show that the pair is still descending. This could be attributable to the general weakness of USD against most major currencies. I must admit however, the pair is very tempting for long. The best option if you are trading this currency long-term is to wait for the trend reverse and follow it. A weekly candle close above 0.98963, which is a very strong support will confirm the reversal. This is an area I will be watching


For a short term trade the sell signal was given by M15 on 0.97161. The best option for short term trading is to wait for another signal sell signal on M15.

The points are clearly indicated in the charts below
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Mastercharts USDCHF - forex market fundamental news

Mastercharts USDCHF ~ forex market fundamental news

This is another pair I dont trade regularly. However, I did technical analysis on the pair for a reader on this forum. After the analysis, I decided to prepare a mastercharts for for the benefit of benefit of those who might be interested in this currency pair.

The major support/resistance areas for USDCHF are indictated on the yellow lines and the blue/red lines are the minor areas. They are located roughly 1000 pips apart.

As usual the monthly week, and daily charts are attached.

By the way, did you see the fall on the major pairs over the last few days? GBPUSD fell by about 400 pips from the highest point so far this weej. Check the mastercharts for these pairs in the previous post and you will see how a break of the major support/resistance precipates a rush to the next level.

Enjoy your trades.
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USDCHF (updated) Outlook - forex market news in india

USDCHF (updated) Outlook ~ forex market news in india

WEEKLY



The weekly chart has been on the decline from 1.17500 since May 2010. The trendline is being respected so far.



DAILY


The daily chart is also on a decline and presently unable to rise above the 50 point mark. In view of the current weakness of the dollar, the pressure seems to be on the downside. The daily RSI is currently on 38+. But historically USDCHF is cable of drastic movement up and down it can go as low as 16.67 point on the daily RSI and as high as 80.12. It is always helpful to understand the currency pairs you are trading.



Recommendation:



This is the time to wait until the daily RSI falls below 70. At least 2 daily candles will alert you when to buy or sell.



The weekly, daily and H4 charts are attached as usual.
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See where we are! - forex market news mt5

See where we are! ~ forex market news mt5

Look at where the price is at the moment! The price moved above 1.60000 by about 20 pips, came down straight and closed around 1.58385 support. There is nothing better than trading within concrete zones. As I mentioned earlier, the current zone is valid until the daily candle closes either above or below the box. See the current range clearly depicted by M15 chart below.

Happy trading!
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Understanding Price Action - forex trading important news

Understanding Price Action ~ forex trading important news

I have always emphasised, most especially to new traders, that price movement is never random. It is an organised chaos designed by the big players to confuse the novice. However, the daily chart will exposes the intention of the big boys.



As you can see from the daily chart below from its height of 1.62795 the daily candle touched 1.59593 and is now pulling back as at the time of writing. Where will it close? Please note that until a candle closes it is still a moving target. Concidentally, the last time the daily candle fell from 1.62795 it touched t.59593 (indicated by the red box in the chart) and pulled back to 1.61750 area. On the first occassion, the daily RSI kissed 50 point mark and turned back. Will it behave the same way this time around? Coincidentally these key areas are respected on the weekly chart.



What is the meaning of the above observation? Whenever price gets to 50 point mark on the daily RSI price could go either way, it could either reverse or continue the journey. The key to success in this business is TIMING (TIME TO SELL, BUY, WAIT OR TAKE PROFIT). If you are trading using the daily chart as a guide 50 point mark is neither the time to buy or sell but to take profit and wait for other opportunities.



How do you trade this? As long RSI is still above the 50 point mark, the ultimate direction is down (30 point mark) before any major reversal. If this is a pull back, watch out for opportunity to sell between 1.61750 and 1.63000 when daily RSI would be around 70 point mark. In simple term, you can either wait for daily RSI to get back 70 point mark to sell or 30 point mark to buy.





See the daily and weekly charts below and the key areas to watch out for. It is always helpfull to plan ahead.
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How to use mastercharts - forex trading financial news

How to use mastercharts ~ forex trading financial news

I will use the GBPUSD to explain the usage of the charts. You will have observed that GBPUSD is my favourable pair followed by GBPJPY. GBPUSD is more rational, predictable and logical while GBPJPY on the hand is perhaps one of the most irrational and volatile currency pair in the world. If you read some of my previous posts you will have a better insight into the character of some of these pairs.



How to use the Mastercharts

Trading requires careful preparation and insightful analysis. This could be overwhelming and confusing to majority of traders. The truth of the matter is that most traders are incapable of undertaking the complex technical analysis required for informed decisions. The fundamental analysis is a different challenge entirely. I read somewhere that you need 100,000 hours of study to fully understand forex trading. Let me tell you the truth, this statement though slightly exaggerated might not be very far from the truth. However, as a result of my researches over the last few years, I have narrowed down this complex endeavour into some simple easy to understand strategy. The secrets of forex price action are in the higher timeframes. The first step in this process is to prepare the chart for any currency pair you wish to trade to be trader-friendly. How do you make your charts trader-friendly?



How to create a user-friendly chart


If you read my post on how trading could be colourful you will have a clear insight on how to achieve this. As a recap, here are the steps to make your charts user-friendly:

a) Open a new chart for the currency you wish to trade (GBPUSD in this example)
b) Go to the weekly timeframe and draw horizontal lines at the level indicated in my mastercharts. The major levels for GBPUSD are:

a. 1.73000
b. 1.63000
c. 1.53000
d. 1.43000
e. 1.33000
f. 1.23000

c) Insert Relative Strength index (RSI) for 14 days period.
d) Go to the daily timeframe and identify the historical high and low points on the RSI
e) Draw horizontal lines on the daily RSI depicting the historical high and low points.
f) Go to the weekly time frame and click on insert shapes and draw rectangular shape between the highest horizontal line on the RSI and 70 point level. Do the same thing for the lowest point and the 30 point level.
g) Select the rectangular shape above 70 point level and change the colour to yellow. You can select by double clicking on the shape first, then right click and pick rectangular properties and pick the colour from style.
h) Select the rectangular shapes below 30 point level and change the colour to red.


If you follow the above steps, your chart will look like the chart for my example. Your chart is now trader-friendly and you are ready to roll.
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GBPUSD trading opportunities - forex market news feed

GBPUSD trading opportunities ~ forex market news feed

In the past few weeks, we have discussed the mastercharts for major pairs. Beginning from this week we shall begin to examine the interpretation of some of these charts beginning with GBPUSD which is the major pair I trade regularly.

As I have mentioned in some of my previous posts, if you want to be a successful trader, it is always advisable to concentrate on one or two pairs first. Trading this way, you will develop the ability to understand the key support/resitance areas, trend and price action for the pairs. By the time you understand a pair, it is alway easier to make profit consistently from your trades. In fact, you do not need to trade more two or three pairs to be a successful trader. Timing is very critical in this endeavour and the important ones are:


TIME TO WAIT
TIME TO BUY
TIME TO SELL
TIME TO TAKE PROFIF




GBPUSD closed around 1.61900 last week. Both the daily and H4 charts closed below the long-term bullish trendline from April 2010. The weekly needs to close below this trendline and 1.60000 to finally confirm that the bear has taken over.

Short Term Trades

Here are the targets for short trades:

1st support - 1.61000
2nd support - 1.60000
3rd support - 1.59350
4th supprt - 1.58000
5th support - 1.55000
6th support - 1.53000


Here are the targets for long trades:

1st resistance - 1.63000
2nd Resistance - 1.64000
3rd Resistance - 1.65500
4th Resistance - 1.67500
5th Reistance - 1.70000

The most important support/resistance levels for this week is the first and second resistance/support levels.

From where the price open this week, we have roughly 200 pips either way for this week. You will still need H4 to confirm immediate support/resistance and M15 for the best entry point. Please include RSI 14 days period with horizontal line at 50 point marks in your chart to confirm this support and resistance level on any time zone.

Long Term Trades

Here are the available targets for short trades:

1st support - 1.60000
2nd support - 1.53000


Here are the targets for long trades:

1st resistance - 1.63000
2nd Reistance - 1.70000

For long-term trades if weekly fails to break 1.60000, then a long will be a good trade and if the weekly fails to break 1.70000, a short will be a good trade. Both trades should be good for between 300-500 pips and will require between 3-5 weeks for it to play out.

I attach the weekly, daily and H4 charts in support of the above analysis.
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